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Grayson Allen (8) of the Phoenix Suns. Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images

NBA Player Props: 3 Picks for Saturday night's slate 3/23

Originally posted on Action Network | By Michael Fiddle | Last updated 3/23/24

Check out tonight's NBA player prop picks with my expert picks for Grayson Allen, De'Aaron Fox and Clint Capela.

Saturday features an eight-game NBA slate. We have the Portland Trailblazers, San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors all on second leg of back-to-back sets, with the latter two teams also having a road game/overnight travel.

The two games that feature the strongest playoff implications are Kings vs. Magic and Suns vs. Spurs. These are definitely games I am going to attack in the prop market due to the sense of urgency most of these teams are playing with (the lone exception being the Spurs on the back-to-back), and thus a sense of security in terms of minutes and usage in a late-March NBA game.

Let's dive into my top NBA player props for tonight's slate.

Kings vs. Magic

Saturday, March 23, 7 p.m. ET, League Pass
De'Aaron Fox, Under 24.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

The Orlando Magic defense is truly special and playing at an all-time high right now. They specialize in length and being able to stop the point of attack.

Coming into town to try to halt their winning streak is the Sacramento Kings, who I have been fading often this season. The Kings have a net rating close to a .500 team, but they've managed to pull out 10 more wins than losses.

The total in this game is dropping from 220 to 216.5, and Fox will have stud defender Jalen Suggs on him for the majority of the game. The last time Fox played the Magic was in early January, when he played 44 minutes but was held to only 15 points.

I think this line will stay flat at the 24.5 and is very fairly priced, but it is a small bet because I love the basketball angle but do not anticipate market closing line value.

Pick: De'Aaron Fox Under 24.5 Points (-110)

Hornets vs. Hawks

Saturday, March 23, 7:30 p.m. ET, League Pass
Clint Capela, Over 12.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)

This is a handicap I love for a simple reason: I project Clint Capela to see some increased minutes and usage while also feeling his standard usage is enough. I also like getting even-money vig and not paying 1 cent of juice. Lovely!

Onyeka Okongwu, the Hawks' other big, is listed as doubtful while playing in the previous games. Meanwhile, Capela has had double-digit shot attempts and covered the 12.5 points line in five of the last seven contests anyway.

I do not expect the even money payout to last; this juice could swing to -120 by tip, with the under being even money.

Pick: Clint Capela Over 12.5 Points (+100)

(This month the Tar Heel State launched North Carolina sports betting fully online. Sign up at NC Sportsbooks today.)

Suns vs. Spurs

Saturday, March 23, 8 p.m. ET, League Pass
Grayson Allen, 2+ Steals (-170, DraftKings)

The handicap here is to target defensive statistics in a likely high-pace game featuring two teams that often turn over the ball. The Spurs and Suns rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in NBA team turnovers on the season.

The game total opened at 228, and it has since started to take some movement toward the over and sits at 228.5 or 229 currently. To me that indicates there may be a faster pace than what was initially priced for this game. I also know the Spurs are on the second leg of a back-to-back, are young, and may be hitting that late-season wall.

They're the team with slightly more turnovers anyway, so I went seeking for steals/block prices on player props. My favorite was Grayson Allen at +170 odds for 2+ steals because he has steals in six consecutive games and his playing time has not seen any dip with Bradley Beal at full speed. You can also find Kevin Durant +200 at FanDuel for 2+ steals, or look for block prices as well (but blocking the Spurs is difficult for Wembanobvious reasons).